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DIW Discussion Papers 1286 / 2013
We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as the inflation rate. Inflation ...
2013| Markku Lanne
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DIW Discussion Papers 1285 / 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly increased again in the late 1990.s. Estimates of the new Keynesian Phillips curve indicate that current inflation ...
2013| Markku Lanne, Jani Luoto
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DIW Discussion Papers 1284 / 2013
We investigate long-term trends in the intergenerational transmission of education in a low income country undergoing a transition from socialism to a market economy. We draw on evidence from Kyrgyzstan using data from three household surveys collected in 1993, 1998 and 2011. We find that Kyrgyzstan, like Eastern European middle income transition economies, generally maintained high educational mobility, ...
2013| Tilman Brück, Damir Esenaliev
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DIW Discussion Papers 1283 / 2013
Nonparametric efficiency analysis has become a widely applied technique to support industrial benchmarking as well as a variety of incentive- based regulation policies. In practice such exercises are often plagued by incomplete knowledge about the correct specifications of inputs and outputs. Simar and Wilson (2001) and Schubert and Simar (2011) propose restriction tests to support such specification ...
2013| Anne Neumann, Maria Nieswand, Torben Schubert
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DIW Discussion Papers 1282 / 2013
The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the predictive content of uncorrelated, yet dependent model innovations. The adjustment is motivated by non-Gaussian ...
2013| Benjamin Beckers, Helmut Herwartz, Moritz Seidel
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DIW Discussion Papers 1281 / 2013
We investigate whether people become more willingly self-employed during boom periods or in recessions and to what extent it is the business cycle or the employment status influencing entry rates into entrepreneurship. Our analysis for Germany reveals that start-up activities are positively influenced by unemployment rates and that the cyclical component of real GDP has a negative effect. This implies ...
2013| Michael Fritsch, Alexander S. Kritikos, Katharina Pijnenburg
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DIW Discussion Papers 1280 / 2013
This paper studies the long-term impact of societal socialization on values using the example of doping behavior in sports. We apply the German Reunification Approach to the microcosm of Berlin and exploit its 40-year long division into a capitalist and a communist sector. We deliberately chose attitudes toward doping to test the impact of ideology on values since (i) post-1989 disappointed economic ...
2013| Nicolas R. Ziebarth, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1279 / 2013
This paper examines the dynamics of stock prices in Ukraine by estimating the degree of persistence of the PFTS stock market index. Using long memory techniques we show that the log prices series is I(d) with d slightly above 1, implying that returns are characterised by a small degree of long memory and thus are predictable using historical data. Moreover, their volatility, measured as the absolute ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
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DIW Discussion Papers 1278 / 2013
We investigate whether the willingness to take investment risk is a sex-linked trait and link the results to the country's gender equality regime. Our empirical analysis involves household data on financial asset holdings as well as on self-reported risk tolerance for Austria, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Of those countries, Italy is by far the country with the greatest degree of gender inequality ...
2013| Nataliya Barasinska, Dorothea Schäfer
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DIW Discussion Papers 1277 / 2013
Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Roberta De Santis, Alessandro Girardi
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DIW Discussion Papers 1276 / 2013
The international transmission of knowledge through import spillovers, as a source of TFP growth, has received much attention in the literature. We investigate two additional direct channels through which R&D disseminates: the import of high-technology goods and the internationalization of business R&D. Building on an extensive dataset, covering both developing and industrial countries, we add foreign ...
2013| Heike Belitz, Florian Mölders
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DIW Discussion Papers 1275 / 2013
The creation of the EU's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has turned the right to emit CO2 into a positively priced intermediate good for the affected firms. Firms thus face the decision whether to source compliance with the EU ETS within their boundaries or to acquire it through the permit trade. However, a combination of internal abatement, free permit allocation and exibility to shift the use of ...
2013| Aleksandar Zaklan
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DIW Discussion Papers 1274 / 2013
In this paper, we develop a market screening model to detect inconstancies in price changes. Although there is a long history of industrial organization research of collusion, price setting behavior, and conduct - a robust model to detect structural changes in market structure was missing so far. Our non-parametric approach closes this gap and can be used as a tentative warning system for emerging ...
2013| Korbinian von Blanckenburg, Marc Hanfeld, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 1273 / 2013
In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas ...
2013| Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, Ruud Egging
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DIW Discussion Papers 1272 / 2013
The self-employment rate includes entrepreneurs out of opportunity and entrepreneurs out of necessity. While the effect of opportunity entrepreneurs on economic development should be positive, there should be no or a negative effect of necessity entrepreneurship. We use a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to analyze whether the effect of self-employment on economic development is heterogeneous ...
2013| Katharina Pijnenburg
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DIW Discussion Papers 1271 / 2013
In the European Emissions Trading System, power generators hold CO2 allowances to hedge for future power sales. First, we model their aggregate hedging demand in response to changes in expectations of future fuel, carbon and power prices from forward prices. This partial equilibrium analysis is then integrated into a two period model of the supply and demand of CO2 allowances considering also emissions ...
2013| Anne Schopp, Karsten Neuhoff
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DIW Discussion Papers 1270 / 2013
Spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence are two well established aspects of house price developments. However, the analysis of differences in spatial dependence across time and space has not gained much attention yet. In this paper we jointly analyze these three aspects of spatial data. We apply a panel smooth transition regression model that allows for heterogeneity across time and space in spatial ...
2013| Katharina Pijnenburg
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DIW Discussion Papers 1269 / 2013
Die Bedeutung regionaler Unterschiede des Preisniveaus wird in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften unterschätzt. Lediglich in Form von "Mietspiegeln" werden regionale Preisniveauunterschiede lebensweltlich berücksichtigt. Wie experimentelle Berechnungen des Bundesinstituts für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung (BBSR) zeigen, gibt es in Deutschland gegenwärtig nennenswerte Preisniveauunterschiede auf der Ebene ...
2013| Heinz Vortmann, Jan Goebel, Peter Krause, Gert G. Wagner
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DIW Discussion Papers 1268 / 2013
EMELIE-ESY is a partial equilibrium model with focus on electricity markets. Private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and dispatch over the horizon 2010 to 2050. In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities and climate policies on the European power markets. The ...
2013| Andreas Schröder, Thure Traber, Claudia Kemfert
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DIW Discussion Papers 1267 / 2013
This paper investigates whether male soccer tradition can predict the success of female soccer. Different from the existing literature, this paper utilizes panel data covering 175 countries during the 1991-2011 period, capturing country heterogeneity effects and time trends. An instrumental variable approach is further employed in order to identify causal relation. My findings do not support the widespread ...
2013| Seo-Young Cho