Publikationen der Abteilung Makroökonomie

Early Exit from ECB Bond Purchase Program Could Reduce GDP Growth and Inflation

The European Central Bank is planning a gradual reduction of government bond purchases under the asset purchase program it initiated in 2015. The present study by the German Institute for Economic Research analyzes the potential macroeconomic implications of different exit strategies. The authors examined the potential effects of a reduction in net purchase volume, an early exit, and a faster exit ...

German Economy Still Running at High Capacity: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy is on track for continued growth. Due to the unexpectedly robust first six months of 2017, the German Institute for Economic Research is raising its forecast for GDP growth to 1.9 percent for the current year. This year and arguably for the coming two years, the country’s output will exceed potential output; nonetheless, there is no risk of overheating. Economic growth will slow ...

The World Economy and the Euro Area: Broad-Based Upswing: DIW Economic Outlook

This year and next, global GDP will grow more strongly than expected. The growth rate should be just under four percent. In developed economies, the continuing improvement in the job market situation will drive consumption. Corporate investment activity will also gain momentum. Over the forecast horizon, a slowly rising inflation rate and somewhat tighter monetary policy will gradually slow private ...

German Economy Continues Steady Upswing with no Sign of Overheating: Editorial

Increased Labor Market Participation Can't Do the Job of Mastering Germany's Demographic Change in the Future

In the last decade the available labor force has expanded in Germany—despite the decline in the working-age population. The reason: labor market participation has increased, for women in particular and older people in general. Also noticeable was a rise in qualification level because well-educated people have a particularly high propensity to participate in the labor market. Most recently, Germany’s ...

Capital Requirements for New Government Bond Purchases Only Could Be a Reasonable Strategy: Interview with Dorothea Schäfer

Risk Weighting for Government Bonds: Challenge for Italian Banks

Although banks are required to document their equity capital for loans, corporate bonds, and other receivables, they are currently exempted from the procedure when investing in government bonds: they enjoy an “equity capital privilege.” As part of the Basel III regulatory framework redraft, the privilege may be eliminated in order to disentangle the default risks between sovereigns and banks. The present ...

Income Groups and Types of Employment in Germany since 1995

This report examines how income groups and forms of employment in Germany have changed in the past two decades. Since the mid-1990s, inequality in disposable household income in Germany has generally increased. This trend was in effect until 2005. While fewer people had disposable incomes in the median range, the proportion of the population at both tails of the income distribution increased. At the ...

No Germany-Wide Housing Bubble but Overvaluation in Regional Markets and Segments

Although the housing prices in the 127 largest German cities have surged strongly in recent years, there is still no sign of a Germanywide housing bubble. In comparison with 2009, the price of condominiums has risen by around 55 percent. Single-family houses cost between 38 and 45 percent more in 2016 than seven years prior, and building lot prices have risen by around 63 percent. The study at hand ...

German Economy in Good Shape: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy is in the midst of a robust economic cycle: the number of employed persons has reached historic highs and is still increasing powerfully; private household income is on the rise; and the public coffers are overflowing. Inflation is rising only gradually, partly because capacities are not overburdened. The mood is bright among consumers and firms alike, with economic development distributed ...