Externe referierte Aufsätze

Household Survey Data for Research on Well-Being and Behavior in Central Asia

This paper summarizes the micro-level survey evidence from Central Asia generated and analyzed in the period 1992-2012. We provide an exhaustive overview over all accessible individual and household-level surveys undertaken inKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and of all academic papers published using these datasets. We argue that Central Asia is a fascinating region ...

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

An Early Warning System to Predict Speculative House Price Bubbles

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest ...

Forecasting Life Satisfaction across Adulthood: Benefits of Seeing a Dark Future?

Anticipating one's future self is a unique human capacity that contributes importantly to adaptation and health throughout adulthood and old age. Using the adult life span sample of the national German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N > 10,000, age range 18 to 96 years), we investigated age-differential stability, correlates, and outcomes of accuracy in anticipation of future life satisfaction across ...

Check Verbraucherpolitik und Verbraucherbeteiligung: Empfehlungen für eine evidenzbasierte Verbraucherpolitik

The paper discusses the opportunities for an empirically grounded decision support system as an instrument for independent and scientifically based consumer policy consulting. To date, consumer policy is dominated by the information paradigm and the leitbild of the rational, sovereign and information-seeking consumer. Yet, both everyday practice and research in behavioural economics show that this ...

Individual Differences in Social Comparison and Its Consequences for Life Satisfaction: Introducing a Short Scale of the Iowa-Netherlands Comparison Orientation Measure

Research in social psychology has shown individual variation in the tendency to compare one's own opinions and abilities with those of other people, raising the question of whether social comparisons are psychological dispositions. To test the empirical validity of this proposition, Gibbons and Buunk (1999) created an instrument, the Iowa-Netherlands Comparison Orientation Measure (INCOM), that measures ...

Intertemporal Labor Supply and Involuntary Unemployment

We estimate a model of intertemporal male labor supply behavior which explicitly accounts for the effect of income taxation and the transfer system. Moreover, we model the demand-side driven rationing risk that prevents agents from choosing the optimal labor supply state. Our results show that elasticities derived in an unconstrained pure choice model are significantly higher compared to a model with ...

Are Couples with Young Children More Likely to Split up When the Mother Is the Main or an Equal Earner?

This study examines how a mother being the main or an equal earner impacts the relationship stability of heterosexual couple parents, using the UK's Millennium Cohort Survey. Various theories alternatively predict that such couples experience a higher or lower risk of divorce than male-breadwinner couples. Alternatively the characteristics of these couples may predispose them to relatively higher or ...

Validating Abbreviated Measures of Effort-Reward Imbalance at Work in European Cohort Studies: The IPD-Work Consortium

Cohort Profile: The Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II)

Partnership Longevity and Personality Congruence in Couples

Evidence of assortative mating according to personality was reported in a previous SOEP-based study (Rammstedt & Schupp, 2008). Based on population representative data of almost 7000 couples, high levels of congruence between spouses were found, which increased with marriage duration. Almost 5000 of these couples were tracked over a five-year period with personality assessed at the beginning and end ...

Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Does Catching up Explain the Development?

In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries received inreasing attention since the outbreak of the financial crisis. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency and are part of the excessive imbalances procedure. This paper explores the determinants of the imbalances ...

Need for Conclusive Evidence that Positive and Negative Reciprocity Are Unrelated

Comparing Three Models for Introduction of Competition into Railways

In this paper we report the use of the open source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM, www.eclipse.org/stem) to compare three basic models for seasonal influenza transmission. The models are designed to test for possible differences between the seasonal transmission of influenza A and B. Model 1 assumes that the seasonality and magnitude of transmission do not vary between influenza A and ...

Family Location and Caregiving Patterns from an International Perspective

We conduct a cross-national econometric analysis of intra-family location and caregiving patterns. Using European data, we first assess, from an international perspective, the relationship between family structure and the geographic proximity between adult children and their parents. We then examine whether differences in family structure are related to the amount of informal care adult children provide ...

L'entrée sur le marché du travail des descendants d'immigrés: une analyse comparée France-Allemagne

The Global Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curve

We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labour costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components separately in the regression. We find that the common component of changes in unit labour costs has a notable impact ...

Armut und Resilienz: über die Bedingungen von gymnasialem Schulerfolg bei Jugendlichen mit Armutserfahrung

The following study investigates the conditions under which adolescents in Germany between the ages of 16 and 19 who experienced poverty at some point during childhood complete sec-ondary school. Based on considerations from resilience and socialization theory, we test the relevance of social and personal factors for success in secondary school. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study ...

Assessing the Strength and Effectiveness of Renewable Electricity Feed-in Tariffs in European Union Countries

In the last two decades, feed-in tariffs (FIT) have emerged as one of the most popular policies for supporting renewable electricity (RES-E) generation. A few studies have assessed the effectiveness of RES-E policies, but most ignore policy design features and market characteristics (e.g. electricity price and production cost) that influence policy strength. We employ 1992-2008 panel data to conduct ...

The Dynamics of Repaet Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and ...