Change in flood and climate risk perceptions after the 2021 flood in Germany: A panel study

Abstract

With climate change, people increasingly experience extreme weather events. This requires ambitious adaptation on individual and collective levels. At the same time, right-wing populism is on the rise. This may come with climate change skepticism that may also affect flood and climate change risk perceptions. Using longitudinal data from the German Green-SOEP panel (n = 2744), we assessed how flood and climate risk perceptions, as well as perceptions of the importance of protection from climate change changed between 2020 and 2022, and how this change linked to the experience of a severe flood in 2021 and to political orientation. Personal and general flood risk perceptions increased, but not for people who identified with the climate-skeptical party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) in 2022. Personal flood risk perceptions, but not general flood risk perceptions, increased more for people who experienced the 2021 flood than for those who did not. This pattern did not extend to climate risk perceptions and the perceived importance of protection from climate change, which did not increase, not even among those who experienced the 2021 flood. For those who identified with the AfD in 2022, they even decreased. Future research, as well as climate risk communications and climate change adaptation efforts, need to address these dynamics of change in responses to floods and possibly extreme weather events across different population subgroups.