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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In 1988 Basil Moore published his book Horizontalists and Verticalists: The Macroeconomics of Credit Money, which this year celebrates its 25th birthday. We discuss this book from today's perspective, and in particular whether Moore's main assertions have been validated or rejected by the development of central bank practice and academic monetary economics. We find that the book has impressively stood ...
In:
Review of Keynesian Economics
1 (2013), 4, S. 383-390
| Ulrich Bindseil, Philipp König
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries received inreasing attention since the outbreak of the financial crisis. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency and are part of the excessive imbalances procedure. This paper explores the determinants of the imbalances ...
In:
Review of International Economics
21 (2013), 1, S. 6-17
| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export ...
In:
Empirical Economics
45 (2013), 1, S. 39-60
| Christian Dreger, Dierk Herzer
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...
In:
Urban Policy and Research
31 (2013), 1, S. 27-39
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labour costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components separately in the regression. We find that the common component of changes in unit labour costs has a notable impact ...
In:
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
75 (2013), 1, S. 103-122
| Sandra Eickmeier, Katharina Pijnenburg
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Survey-based indicators are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity. As such, consumer confidence might be informative for the future path of private consumption. Although the indicators receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power often appears to be very limited. This paper takes a fresh look at the data that serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) ...
In:
Journal of Forecasting
32 (2013), 1, S. 10-18
| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
A large literature documents that migrants are attracted to destinations that already host migrants of their same nationality (co-national pull). Drawing on aggregate migration data from Spain, detailed by country of origin and province of destination for the period 1996-2006, we find that migrants are also attracted to destinations that already host migrants from nationalities that are adjacent to ...
In:
International Review of Economics and Finance
28 (2013), S. 51-61
| Nina Neubecker, Marcel Smolka
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion - a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals - are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
34 (2013), S. 60-82
| John Beirne, Marcel Fratzscher
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We analyse the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and real per capita GDP growth for euro area members and a broader set of industrial countries by distinguishing periods of sustainable and non-sustainable debt. Thresholds for debt are theory-driven and depend on macroeconomic conditions. If the nominal interest rate exceeds nominal output growth, primary budget surpluses are required to achieve ...
In:
Journal of Macroeconomics
38 (2013), Part B, S. 481-486
| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
The paper asks whether members of central bank decision-making committees should communicate with the public in a collegial manner, by conveying the consensus or majority view of the committee, or in an individualistic way, by providing the diversity of views among the committee members. It finds that more active as well as more consistent communication by committee members improves the predictability ...
In:
Public Choice
157 (2013), 1/2, S. 223-244
| Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher