Externe referierte Aufsätze

The Emotional Timeline of Unemployment: Anticipation, Reaction , and Adaptation

Unemployment continues to be one of the major challenges in industrialized societies. Aside from its economic and societal repercussions, questions concerning the subjective experience of unemployment have recently attracted increasing attention. Although existing studies have documented the detrimental effects of unemployment for cognitive (life satisfaction) and affective well-being, studies directly ...

Involuntary Job Loss and Changes in Personality Traits

Economists consider personality traits to be stable, particularly throughout adulthood. However, evidence from psychological studies suggests that the stability assumption may not always be valid, as personality traits can respond to certain life events. Our paper analyzes whether and to what extent personality traits are malleable over a time span of eight years for a sample of working individuals. ...

Company Rating with Support Vector Machines

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, a support vector machine, and a non-parametric isotonic regression for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We also propose a four data set model validation and training procedure that is more appropriate for credit rating data commonly characterised with cyclicality and panel features. Tests ...

Mozart or Pelé? The Effects of Adolescents' Participation in Music and Sports

We analyse the effects of playing music, or doing sports on education and health outcomes of adolescents. After identifying adolescents who play music, do sports, or both, in the German Socio-Economic Panel, we use matching procedures to estimate causal effects. We find that playing music instead of doing sports fosters educational outcomes by about 0.1 standard deviations. Effects are stronger for ...

Public Preferences for Alternative Electricity Mixes in Post-Fukushima Japan

Using representative household survey data from Japan after the Fukushima accident, we estimate peoples' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for renewable, nuclear, and fossil fuels in electricity generation. We rely on random parameter econometric techniques to capture various degrees of heterogeneity between the respondents, and use detailed regional information to assess how WTP varies with the distance to ...

Determinants of Chinese Direct Investments in the European Union

This article analyses the determinants of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in the European Union (EU). Evidence is based on panel Poisson models drawing on two investment monitors at the individual project level. Greenfield investments (GI) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are distinguished. The findings indicate that market size and bilateral trade are the main factors for Chinese ...

Risk Forecasting in (T)GARCH Models with Uncorrelated Dependent Innovations

(G)ARCH-type models are frequently used for the dynamic modelling and forecasting of risk attached to speculative asset returns. While the symmetric and conditionally Gaussian GARCH model has been generalized in a manifold of directions, model innovations are mostly presumed to stem from an underlying IID distribution. For a cross section of 18 stock market indices, we notice that (threshold) (T)GARCH-implied ...

Growing up with a Single Mother and Life Satisfaction in Adulthood: A Test of Mediating and Moderating Factors

Single parenthood is increasingly common in Western societies but only little is known about its long-term effects. We therefore studied life satisfaction among 641 individuals (ages 18–66 years) who spent their entire childhood with a single mother, 1539 individuals who spent part of their childhood with both parents but then experienced parental separation, and 21,943 individuals who grew up with ...

Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis

The idea that birth-order position has a lasting impact on personality has been discussed for the past 100 years. Recent large-scale studies have indicated that birth-order effects on the Big Five personality traits are negligible. In the current study, we examined a variety of more narrow personality traits in a large representative sample (n = 6,500–10,500 in between-family analyses; n = 900–1,200 ...

Fiscal Equalization and Tax Enforcement

In many countries organized as federations, fiscal equalization schemes have been implemented to mitigate vertical or horizontal imbalances. Such schemes usually imply that the member states of the federation can only partly internalize (marginal) tax revenue before redistribution. Aside from the internalized marginal revenue, referred to as the marginal tax-back rate, the remainder is redistributed. ...

North American Natural Gas Model: Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico

Natural gas gained significant attention due to its low carbon emissions and competitive prices in North America relative to other energy sources. The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 projects the U.S. as a net exporter by 2017. Recently, Mexico launched its energy reform, aiming to expand domestic production by opening the market to private investors. The success or failure of these policy changes will ...

Spillovers of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets: The Role of Capital Flows

We employ a structural global VAR model to analyze whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks, identified through changes in the central bank’s balance sheet, have an impact on financial and economic conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we study whether international capital flows are an important channel of shock transmission. We find that an expansionary policy shock ...

Allais for the Poor: Relations to Ability, Information Processing, and Risk Attitudes

This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing ...

A Nod to Public Open Access Infrastructures

Developing Better Measures of Neighbourhood Characteristics and Change for Use in Studies of Residential Mobility: A Case Study of Britain in the Early 2000s

This paper addresses the problem of measuring neighbourhood characteristics and change when working with individual level datasets to understand the effects of residential mobility. Currently available measures in Britain are in various respects unsuitable for this purpose. The paper explores a new indicator of small area poverty: the Unadjusted Means-tested Benefits Rate (UMBR), which divides claimants ...

A Reputation Economy: How Individual Reward Considerations Trump Systemic Arguments for Open Access to Data

Open access to research data has been described as a driver of innovation and a potential cure for the reproducibility crisis in many academic fields. Against this backdrop, policy makers are increasingly advocating for making research data and supporting material openly available online. Despite its potential to further scientific progress, widespread data sharing in small science is still an ideal ...

The Impact of Wind Power Support Schemes on Technology Choices

In energy systems with large shares of variable renewable energies, electricity generation is lower during unfavorable weather conditions. System-friendly wind turbines (SFTs) rectify this by producing a larger share of their electricity at low wind speeds. This paper analyzes to what extent SFTs' benefits out-weigh their additional costs and how to incentivize investments into them. Using a wind power ...

The Role of Morbidity for Proxy-Reported Well-Being in the Last Year of Life

Late-life well-being often shows steep deteriorations, but the contributing factors are not well understood, in part because data about people’s final year of life are scarce. Here, we draw from and test theoretical perspectives that health-related vulnerabilities undermine the experience and skills older adults typically use to maintain well-being (Charles, 2010). To do so, we examined how various ...

Replikationen, Reputation und gute wissenschaftliche Praxis

In Zeiten wachsender Publikationszahlen und zunehmend datenintensiver Forschung stoßen die klassischen Qualitätssicherungsmaßnahmen, wie die Peer-Review, an ihre Grenzen. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden Replikationsstudien verstärkt als gute wissenschaftliche Praxis und Lösungsansatz diskutiert, um dem Problem methodisch unzureichender und oftmals fehlerbehafteter Analysen zu begegnen. Denn schlechte ...

Pension Incentives and Early Retirement

In this paper we exploit a cohort-specific pension reform to estimate the labour market effects of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular, we analyse the effects of the introduction of cohort-specific deductions for early retirement on female retirement, employment and unemployment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German pension insurance. ...